In this week’s Energy Capital Podcast, I revisit my recent article, None of the Above, with added commentary. Please give it a listen and let me know what you think in the comments.
All of the Above vs. None of the Above
For years, U.S. energy policy has been framed as “all of the above.” No red or blue electrons, just building what works.
The new budget bill flips that script and is leaving closer to none of the above. The administration’s preferred resources aren’t available at scale:
Nuclear? Promising, but still 5-7 years, at least, from scaling
Gas? Facing massive supply chain bottlenecks, the world’s biggest turbine manufacturer only produces ~20 GW per year, globally.
Coal? No amount of weird nostalgia will changes its costs and health impacts.
Renewables and storage? The only sources growing fast enough to meet demand if they’re not strangled by new red tape.
Blocking wind, solar, and batteries takes away most of what’s getting built.
So where will the new power for AI come from if not from renewables and storage?
AI’s Power Hunger Meets a Grid Bottleneck
The White House’s own AI Action Plan says it plainly: “We must harness the full power of American innovation.” But there’s no details on how to harness enough electricity to make it happen.
Meanwhile, AI developers are already building massive projects like Stargate in Abilene, a facility that will need 1.2 GW of power at launch and grow to 5 GW. For perspective: that’s more than the peak load of Austin, the 11th largest city in the U.S.
How are they powering it? With a mix of wind, storage, and “incremental gas.” It’s pictured below.
The market is showing us the path forward. Will policymakers follow?
None of the Above
A great many Americans — Democrats and Republicans — talk about energy in terms of all-of-the-above. They don’t think of electrons as red or blue. They just know that in the 21st century, America needs more power.
The Clock Is Ticking
EIA projects Texas demand will grow 14% in 2026 (see below). Nationally, data centers and electrification are set to drive historic load growth. Without new renewables and storage, we face higher prices, weaker reliability, and missed economic opportunities… just as China adds 400 GW of clean energy in a single year.
We don’t have 5–7 years to wait for next-gen nuclear. We don’t have a supply chain ready to churn out additional gigawatts of gas turbines overnight.
We have renewables and storage. Or we will not have enough to win the AI race.
Rapid Demand Growth Outpaced by New Supply in Texas: Grid Roundup #70
In this issue of the Texas Grid Roundup:
There’s Still a Way Forward
Here’s the good news: Developers can still add a lot of power in the next few years — if Treasury issues clear guidance and lets projects use existing credits before they expire. Congress already wrote this into law. The administration just needs to get out of the way.
And yes, we should plan for what happens after credits expire. Permitting reform. Smarter integration of flexible loads. More diversified generation. But first, we have to stop kneecapping the solutions that are already working.
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