Winter Storm Enzo Is Approaching. Is the Grid Ready?

This storm looks more like Elliott (Dec. 22) and Heather (Jan. 24) than Uri (Feb. 21). Here's what I'm watching for and why I don't think there will be rolling outages ordered by ERCOT.

I do not expect rolling outages caused by too much demand and too little supply over the next few days. Of course, things can change but it’s highly unlikely, based on current forecasts, that there would be rolling outages ordered by ERCOT. That’s mostly a function of temperature. This system simply will not be as cold as systems in 2022 and 2024, much less 2021.

The snow and ice forecast for Central and East Texas, including Houston, may cause some outages on the distribution side of the grid. Today is the day to prepare if you haven’t done so already. Cover those outside faucets and vulnerable plants, make sure your batteries are charged, etc. State and federal government consistently emphasize protecting the 4 Ps: people, pets, pipes, plants. It’s good advice.

The average statewide low will likely stay well above Heather (15°) and Elliott (13°) and way above Uri (6°). If temperatures get lower than expected, we would see both higher demand driven by inefficient heat in poorly insulated homes and lower supply from freeze-offs in the oil and gas fields and power plant outages.

The current peak demand from this system is likely to occur Wednesday morning, January 22. ERCOT is currently forecasting a peak of nearly 79,000 megawatts, which would be the highest recorded wintertime demand in ERCOT. (Uri demand was not recorded beyond 70,000 megawatts, when the outages began.)

Here are six things I’m watching for in Winter Storm Enzo:

1. How high does demand driven by inefficient heat in poorly insulated homes actually get, and how accurate are ERCOT’s demand forecasts?

2. How does the distribution side of the grid hold up?

3. How much does gas supply, particularly from the Permian, drop?

4. How many thermal (gas, coal, nuclear) plants will be offline?

5. How much renewable power production is there?

6. What contribution do batteries make?

More on all of this below.

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