Texas Grid Roundup #5, February 22, 2024

An ERCOT staff review shows wind, solar, storage, thermal power plants, & demand response all contributed during Winter Storm Heather. But a Uri-like storm would likely still cause outages.

The ERCOT Board will meet next week. Below you’ll find some key takeaways and insights from the presentations filed for both the Reliability & Markets Committee (Monday, Feb. 26) and the full ERCOT Board meeting (Tuesday, Feb. 27). As a reminder, I’ll be online for a paid subscriber chat from 10:00-11:00 CT during the Board meeting on Feb. 27. Chats are available to paid subscribers only; you can upgrade your subscription here and learn more about accessing the chat here.

I’ll also have a subscriber Zoom on March 1 from 11:00-12:00 CT with two parts, a presentation from me, and then an Ask Me Anything (AMA). Feel free to submit questions in advance in the comments.

If you’re already a paid subscriber, thank you! If you’re not, please subscribe today.

Eye-popping and outage-inducing demand numbers

Before I get into the Board materials though, I want to highlight an important demand projection in ERCOT’s 2024 System Planning Peak Demand Forecast, filed last month. In November, ERCOT said there was a 17% chance of rolling outages in January. At the time I wrote in this newsletter:  “[T]hose probabilities are based on last December’s Winter Storm Elliott, not conditions during Winter Storm Uri in 2021. If we do see another Winter Storm Uri next year, the likelihood of at least some rolling outages is probably close to 100%.” 

Here’s why they didn’t calculate the probability of outages in a February 2021-like scenario: ERCOT expects that in a Uri repeat next year, Texans would demand 92 gigawatts of power. The highest ever used in summertime was a little over 85 GW (see the comparison in the graph above). ERCOT’s official estimate of demand was 77GW during Uri (which is almost certainly too low).

Here’s the table from the report:

Source: 2024 Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast

If peak demand actually reached 92 GW, given the almost certain drop in gas output, there is a near-zero chance we could meet it. (As I explained to CBS’ Brian New, I also don’t think outages would last as long or impact as many people.)

But, if the PUC focuses on leveraging existing utility efficiency programs and tax credits, as well as soon-to-arrive IRA incentives to replace inefficient heat with high efficiency, all climate heat pumps and added insulation, we can greatly reduce this number. And we don’t have to wait the same 3-5 years it will take to build a few gas power plants, which wouldn’t be nearly enough to meet a 92GW peak and likely woudn’t be able to get gas during the next Uri.

ERCOT’s Winter Storm Heather Report